1. Introduction
The relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as two influential regional powers, has long been characterized by a pattern of divergence and intense geopolitical and ideological rivalry. However, the March 2023 agreement to restore diplomatic relations, brokered by China, marked a striking and unexpected turning point, signaling a shift from decades of confrontation towards dialogue and rapprochement. This fundamental transformation has created a significant "strategic puzzle" in regional politics that demands a scientific and systematic explanation. This study, with the primary objective of explaining the theoretical framework governing the process of Iran-Saudi rapprochement in 2023, employs the theoretical framework of Neoclassical Realism. The main research question is: what theoretical model explains this sudden convergence, and how did systemic and intervening variables influence its formation?
2. Theoretical Framework
The analytical framework of this research is the theory of Neoclassical Realism. While accepting the core realist principle regarding the importance of the inherent instability of the international system and the role of power, this theory, unlike Structural Realism, posits that the influence of structure on state action is indirect. In other words, Neoclassical Realism, positioning itself between the two poles of "domestic factors" and "structural constraints," argues that the stimuli of the international system (independent variables) are filtered through intervening variables at the unit level (such as the perceptions, calculations, and strategic preferences of leaders, as well as internal obstacles to resource mobilization) and are ultimately transformed into a specific form of foreign policy (dependent variable). This theory is suitable for analyzing Iran-Saudi convergence because it allows for the simultaneous examination of external pressures (such as shifts in global and regional power balances) and the conscious choices of the two countries' leaders.
3. Methodology
This research employs a descriptive-analytical method with a qualitative approach. Data collection was conducted through documentary and library research, gathering necessary data by studying official documents of both countries (statements, leaders' speeches), credible expert analyses, scientific sources (books and articles), and international databases. For data analysis, qualitative content analysis was used within the conceptual framework of Neoclassical Realism theory.
4. Results & Discussion
The Iran-Saudi rapprochement in 2023 can be understood through Neoclassical Realism as the result of systemic pressures filtered through elite perceptions. At the systemic level, structural changes drove this shift. The rise of China as a powerful economic-diplomatic actor, alongside America's relative disengagement from the Persian Gulf, created a strategic alternative for both nations. Regionally, two factors created pressure: the costly stalemate in Yemen and accelerating Arab-Israel normalization (Abraham Accords), which raised concerns in both Tehran and Riyadh about exclusion from emerging security arrangements. This environment rendered the status quo unsustainable. However, systemic pressures alone were insufficient. Intervening variables at the unit level—leadership perception and calculation—proved decisive. In Tehran, pragmatists prioritized escaping sanction-induced isolation, viewing detente as a pathway to economic relief. In Riyadh, Mohammed bin Salman recognized that Vision 2030's success required regional stability, making continued confrontation counterproductive. Both leaderships concluded that cooperation offered positive-sum outcomes. China's mediation served as an external catalyst, providing trust-building mechanisms and linking reconciliation to economic cooperation incentives. Thus, the 2023 rapprochement represents the intersection of inevitable systemic constraints with conscious elite choice—transforming pressures not merely into threats, but opportunities for strategic redefinition.
5. Conclusions & Suggestions
This study concludes that the Iran-Saudi convergence in 2023 can be convincingly explained within the framework of Neoclassical Realism theory. This event was not a random change, but a calculated strategic response by both governments to the transformation in the structural environment (international and regional) and the redefinition of national interests in light of these developments. Increasing systemic constraints (the cost of rivalry, shifts in global power) on one hand, and emerging opportunities (the rise of China) on the other, provided the necessary groundwork. However, the ultimate determining factor was the perception and will of the leaders of both countries to move beyond the discourse of confrontation and accept the logic of cooperation in line with long-term developmental and security goals. China's role as an external catalyst also accelerated and operationalized this process. Although the stability and continuity of this rapprochement depend on future developments in these same variables, this agreement shows that the logic of cooperation alongside the logic of rivalry can find a place in the complex equations of the Middle East.